According to Harris/Decima Chairman Allan Gregg “Conventional wisdom and perhaps even common sense might suggest that a less-than-productive, combative and scandal-tainted Parliamentary session would present political disaster for an incumbent Government. Our most recent polls suggest exactly the opposite is true.

The Conservatives now hold a solid 7 point lead over the Liberals and all their fundamentals suggest that they have completely rebounded from their post-prorogation troubles of half a year ago. They have returned to their fall 2009 high in Ontario and are significantly in the lead in the all-important 905 Area code. The gender gap that normally plagues the Conservatives has all but disappeared and they have a double digit lead among men. As the Liberals hit new lows in BC, that province has become a two-party race between the Conservatives and NDP. The one area where the Conservative rebound has not occurred is in Quebec, where the Conservatives are perilously close to single digits and the combined federalist vote is so low that a Bloc sweep is not beyond the realm of possibility. The big question for the Conservatives therefore becomes are they prepared to wage an election on an English Canada-only strategy".

• Nationally, over the last two weeks, the Conservatives are up by seven points. The Conservatives stand at 34%, the Liberals 27%, the NDP 17%, the BQ 11%, and the Greens 10%.
• In Quebec, the Bloc remains the dominant party. Here, the BQ stands at 45%, compared to 22% for the Liberals, 11% for the Conservatives, 11% NDP and 8% for the Greens.
• In Ontario, the Conservatives have opened up an eight point lead. Here, the Conservatives are at 40%, the Liberals 32%, the NDP 15%, and the Greens 11%.
• In British Columbia, the battle for first continues between the Conservatives and NDP. Currently, the Conservatives stand at 33%, the NDP 32%, the Liberals 19%, and the Greens 14%.
• The Conservatives are well in front on the Prairies.
  • In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the Conservatives are at 39%, the Liberals 23%, the NDP 23%, and the Greens 9%.
  • In Alberta, the Conservatives hold 55% support, the Liberals 22%, the NDP 10%, and the Greens 10%
• The Conservatives and Liberals are neck and neck in Atlantic Canada. Here, the Conservatives stand at 38%, the Liberals 36%, the NDP 17% and the Greens 7%.

These data were gathered through teleVox, Harris/Decima’s national telephone omnibus survey over two weeks between June 10 and June 20, 2010 for 2,034 completes. A sample of the same size has a margin of error of 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error are outlined below.

Atlantic - +/-6.8%
Quebec - +/-4.4%
Ontario - +/-3.8%
Man/Sask - +/-6.8%
Alberta - +/-6.8%
BC - +/-+/-6.1%