Conservatives Hold Slight Lead, While More than Half Dissatisfied with Ignatieff and Harper

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According to Harris/Decima Chairman Allan Gregg “With no party within striking distance of a majority, these numbers suggest that leadership is a key barrier in this pursuit.  Both Mr. Harper and Mr. Ignatieff’s leadership scores have remained virtually unchanged the last two months, a trend that has mirrored similar stagnation in popular support for their parties.”

  • Nationally, in the last two weeks, the Conservatives hold a four point lead. The Conservatives are at 32%, the Liberals 28%, the NDP 17%, the Greens 11% and the BQ 10%.
  • In Quebec, the BQ remains well in front. In total, 40% support the BQ, 20% the Liberals, 14% the Conservatives, 13% Green and 10% NDP.
  • The race for support in Ontario remains neck and neck. Here, the Liberals stand at 38%, the Conservatives 35%, the NDP 14% and the Greens 12%.
  • In BC, the Conservatives continue to lead, with the NDP solidifying a hold on 2nd place. The Conservatives are at 36%, the NDP 30%, the Liberals 20% and the Greens 12%.
  • The Prairies remain the Conservative heartland of support.
    • In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the Conservatives are at 47%, the Liberals 23%, the NDP 20%, and the Greens 8%.
    • In Alberta, 51% support the Conservatives, 20%, theLiberals, 13% the NDP and 11% the Greens.
  • Three parties are fighting for support in Atlantic Canada. The Liberals lead with 36%, followed closely by the Conservatives with 34%, the NDP 24% and the Greens 4%.
  • Leadership remains a challenge for the Liberal Party, as Mr. Ignatieff’s favourability remains virtually unchanged from March. Today, 26% have a favourable view of Mr. Ignatieff, while twice that number (52%) hold an unfavourable view. In March, this split was 26%-51%.
  • Roughly the same amount of people holds an unfavourable view of the Prime Minister. In total, 51% said their view of Mr. Harper was unfavourable; however 42% have a favourable view of the Prime Minister, sixteen points higher than the number who feel the same about Mr. Ignatieff. In March, 41% had a favourable view of the Prime Minister, while 49% had an unfavourable one.
  • Mr. Duceppe and Mr. Layton both have net positive ratings, while Ms. May has a net negative rating.
    • In total 46% hold a favourable view of NDP leader Jack Layton, while 36% hold an unfavourable view.
    • More than half (52%) of those in Quebec hold a favourable view of M. Duceppe, while 32% hold an unfavourable view of the BQ leader.
    • Nationally, 28% have a favourable opinion of Green Party leader Elizabeth May, while 32% hold an unfavourable view.

The vote intention data were gathered through teleVox, Harris/Decima’s national telephone omnibus survey over two weeks between May 6 and May 16 2010 for 2,007 completes. A sample of the same size has a margin of error of 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error are outlined below.

The leadership data were gathered through teleVox, Harris/Decima’s national telephone omnibus survey over one week between May 13 and May 16 2010 for 1,007 completes. A sample of the same size has a margin of error of 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error are outlined below.

For the voting intention data, regional margins of error are outlined below:

Atlantic - +/- 6.9% 
Quebec - +/- 4.4%
Ontario - +/- 3.8%
Man/Sask - +/- 6.9%
Alberta - +/- 6.9%
BC - +/- 6.2%