Conservative Support Shows Resilience

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According to Harris/Decima Chairman Allan Gregg: “On the surface it would appear that the Conservative support base has rebounded somewhat off a summer-low of two weeks ago. Whether this is a function of the season and voter inattention or some real -- and inherent -- resilience in the Conservative vote base is difficult to determine. Even with this improvement noted however, it is doubtful that this rebound is enough to encourage the Conservatives to call a fall election. They are still below their 2008 levels of support in both Ontario and Quebec. Without even further gains therefore, the Conservatives would find themselves below their current seat count, if they went to the polls."

  • Nationally, the Conservatives hold a six point lead. The Conservatives stand at 34%, the Liberals 28%, the NDP 15%, the Greens 12% and the BQ 9%.
  • In Quebec, the Bloc remains well in front. Here, the BQ leads with 39%, followed by the Liberals with 25%, the Conservatives 14%, the NDP 12% and the Greens 7%.
  • In Ontario, the Conservatives and Liberals are neck and neck. The Conservatives stand at 35%, the Liberals 34%, the NDP 16% and the Greens 12%.
  • In BC, the Conservatives have pushed ahead of their competition. Here, they stand at 37%, compared to 22% for the Liberals, 20% for the NDP and 20% for the Greens.
  • The Conservatives are the dominant party on the Prairies.
    • In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, they stand at 49%, the Liberals are at 25%, the NDP 14% and the Greens 11%
    • In Alberta, the Conservatives hold the support of 61%, the Greens 14%, the Liberals 13% and the NDP 8%.
  • The Liberals hold a slight lead in Atlantic Canada. Here, the Liberals are at 38%, to 34% for the Conservatives, 20% for the NDP and7% for the Greens.

These data were gathered through teleVox, Harris/Decima’s national telephone omnibus survey over two weeks between July 29 and August 9, 2010 for 2,009 completes. A sample of the same size has a margin of error of 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error are outlined below.

Atlantic - +/- 6.9%
Quebec- +/- 4.4%
Ontario- +/- 3.8%
Man/Sask- +/- 6.9%
Alberta - +/- 6.9%
BC - +/- 6.2%