Conservatives with Double Digit Lead as Campaign Begins

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The latest Canadian Press/Harris Decima measure of voting intention reveals:

According to Chairman Allan Gregg: "For two weeks in a row, we have seen the Conservatives hold a double-digit lead over the Liberals. While two weeks does not a trend make, these are the best results the governing Party have garnered since the fall of 2009 and definitely represent a solid start for the Conservative election campaign. In fact, when you look further into the data, two major shifts seem to be taking place -- the Conservative voter base seems to have been galvanized by the Budget and the election call; and the NDP appear to be making real in-roads among traditional female, Liberal voters. Add to this a fairly steep decline in Liberal fortunes in Quebec over the last month and it suggests that Mr. Ignatieff and his team have a fairly deep hole to dig their way out of over the next 5 weeks."
 

  • Nationally, in the last two weeks, the Conservative lead is 12 points. The Conservatives stand at 37%, to 25% for the Liberals, 18% for the NDP, 10% for the BQ, and 8% for the Greens. Over the latest week, the Conservative lead is 14 points. These results, compiled March 24-27, see the Conservatives with 38% support, the Liberals with 24%, the NDP 19%, the BQ 10% and the Greens 7%.
  • In Quebec, the BQ remain well in front, while the Conservatives have moved ahead of the Liberals. Over the last two weeks, the BQ stands at 40%, to 21% for the Conservatives, 16% for the Liberals, 14% for the NDP, and 7% for the Greens. Over the latest week, the BQ holds 41% support, to 22% for the Conservatives, 14% for the Liberals, 14% for the NDP and 6% for the Greens.
  • The Conservatives hold an 8 point lead in Ontario over the last two weeks. Here, they stand at 41%, to 33% for the Liberals, 16% for the NDP and 8% for the Greens. In the latest week, the Conservatives hold 38% support, to 32% for the Liberals, 20% for the NDP and 8% for the Greens.
  • The Conservatives have pulled ahead in BC. Over the last two weeks, the Conservatives are at 35%, to 29% for the NDP, 20% for the Liberals, and 14% for the Greens.
  • The Conservatives remain the dominant party on the Prairies.  In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, they stand at 52%, to 21% for the Liberals, 21% for the NDP and 4% for the Greens.  In Alberta, they stand at 58%, to 21% for the Liberals, 13% for the NDP, and 5% for the Greens.
  • The race is tight in Atlantic Canada. Here, the Liberals are at 36%, to 35% for the Conservatives, 17% for the NDP and 7% for the Greens.

Each week, Harris/Decima interviews just over 1000 Canadians through teleVox, the company’s national telephone omnibus survey. The two-week data were gathered between March 17 and March 27, 2011 for just over 2,000 completes. A sample of the same size has a margin of error of 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. The one week data was gathered between March 24 and March 27, 2011 for just over 1,000 completes. A sample of the same size has a margin of error of 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins used in this release are outlined below.