Conservatives Lead By Five; NDP Surges Past Liberals

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The latest Canadian Press/Harris Decima measure of voting intentions reveals:

According to Chairman Allan Gregg; “The change in the Canadian political landscape that has taken place in less than 2 weeks has been nothing short of remarkable. NDP vote has increased among ever single voter segment we analyze and while they have taken votes from all parties, there is no question that it is the Bloc Quebecois who have suffered most as a consequence of the NDP surge. The Bloc have lost over half the support they enjoyed at the start of this campaign and with the NDP now touching the 40% voting range, the prospect of the a massive change-over in Quebec now looks very real. Against this, while the NDP is also catching up in Ontario, it still remains a two party race with the Liberals and Conservatives virtually tied. Whether the NDP momentum will carry over to this vote-rich province in the next 4 days could well determine the fortunes of all the parties in this race."
 

  • Nationally, the Conservatives lead by 5 points. Over the latest week, the Conservatives stand at 35%, to 30% for the NDP, 22% for the Liberals, 7% for the Greens, and 5% for the BQ. Over the last two weeks, the Conservatives stand at 35%, to 25% for the Liberals, 25% for the NDP, 7% for the Greens, and 6% for the BQ.
  • The NDP hold a twenty point lead in the province of Quebec. Here, they stand at 42%, to 22% for the BQ, 18% for the Conservatives, 15% for the Liberals and 2% for the Greens. Over the last two weeks, the NDP and BQ are tied at 28% apiece, followed by the Liberals and Conservatives at 19% each, and the Greens at 3%.
  • The race remains neck and neck in Ontario. In the latest week, the Liberals stand at 34%, to 33% for the Conservatives, 25% for the NDP and 6% for the Greens. Over two weeks, the Liberals are at 35%, the Conservatives 34%, the NDP 24% and the Greens 6%.
  • The Conservatives remain in front in BC. Here, over the last two weeks, they stand at 39%, to 30% for the NDP, 18% for the Liberals, and 11% for the Greens.
  • The Conservatives are well in front on the Prairies. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan they hold 51% support, to 24% for the NDP, to 16% for the Liberals, and 7% for the Greens. In Alberta the Conservatives are at 54%, to 16% for the NDP, 16% for the Greens, and 14% for the Liberals.
  • The Conservatives hold a slight lead in Atlantic Canada. Here, they stand at 39%, to 32% for the Liberals, 25% for the NDP and 2% for the Greens.

Each week, Harris/Decima interviews just over 1000 Canadians through teleVox, the company’s national telephone omnibus survey. The most recent data were gathered between April 20 and April 27, 2011 for 1,011 completes. A sample of the same size has a margin of error of 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The two week data were gathered from April 14 to April 27, 2011 for 2,019 completes. A sample of the same size has a margin of error of 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.