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Appreciation for Jack Layton Shines through in Vote Intention

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According to Harris/Decima Chairman Allan Gregg “The national outpouring of emotion we witnessed over Jack Layton's untimely death appears to have translated directly into increased support for the party he leaves behind. Our tracking shows that over the last two weeks, the NDP is now tied with the Conservatives on a nation-wide basis; have been able to sustain the gains they made in Quebec in the last election; and are more competitive with the Conservatives in Ontario than any other time in their history. The extent to which this surprising trend is most likely attributable to "the Jack effect" however, it remains to be seen whether the NDP can consolidate these gains in his absence."

 

  • Over the last two weeks, the NDP and Conservatives are tied. Nationally, over this time, the Conservatives and NDP stand at 33%, the Liberals 21%, the Greens 7% and the BQ 6%.
  • The NDP remain well in front in Quebec. Here, they stand at 41% over the past two weeks, to 23% for the BQ, 15% for the Liberals, 15% for the Conservatives, and 6% for the Greens.
  • Three parties are competitive in Ontario. Here, over the last two weeks, the Conservatives are at 34%, the NDP 30%, the Liberals 29%, and the Greens 7%.
  • The NDP hold a six-point lead in BC. Over the last two weeks they stand at 40%, to 34% for the Conservatives, 20% for the Liberals and 5% for the Greens.
  • The Conservatives are well in front on the Prairies. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, they stand at 50%, to 26% for the NDP, 12% for the Greens, and 11% for the Liberals. In Alberta, the Conservatives are at 61%, to 19% for the NDP, 13% for the Liberals, and 6% for the Greens.
  • The NDP is in front in Atlantic Canada. The NDP stands at 40%, to 33% for the Conservatives, 22% for the Liberals, and 8% for the Greens.

Each week, Harris/Decima interviews just over 1000 Canadians through teleVox, the company’s national telephone omnibus survey. The two week data were gathered from August 18 to August 29, 2011 for just over 2,000 completes. A sample of the same size has a margin of error of 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.